15 5 月, 2026
(AsiaGameHub) - A new report by Gaming Compliance International (GCI) indicates that unregulated online gambling generated an estimated $5.9 trillion in global bets during 2025. This amount exceeds the GDP of every country worldwide except the United States and China. Prediction Markets Are a Major Contributor to This Figure The estimate covers the total betting volume flowing through unlicensed sports betting platforms, online casinos, poker sites, crypto gambling services, and lottery portals across the globe. GCI now divides the online gaming industry into three segments instead of two: regulated, unregulated, and a third category labeled “unacknowledged.” This group includes social casinos, sweepstakes platforms, pseudo-financial products, skins trading, TikTok-based contests, and most notably, prediction markets. This new category includes products that replicate the core mechanics of gambling—such as a stake, an element of chance, and a potential reward—without being formally classified as gambling under current regulations. GCI groups prediction markets into this category, even though there remains significant debate over whether their offered contracts count as gambling or another type of activity. Prediction markets, which now hold an institutional valuation of $9 billion following Wall Street firm Intercontinental Exchange’s $2 billion acquisition of Polymarket in October, occupy a distinct space in GCI’s framework. They are neither considered regulated gambling nor unregulated offshore gambling. Instead, within the U.S., they are treated as financial products overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), while outside the country, they are categorized as unregulated gambling. GCI Leaders React to the Report’s Findings Ismail Vali, president of GCI, stated that the market has essentially fragmented at every level, with prediction markets serving as a prime example of this trend. In an earlier appearance on the On The Margin podcast, Vali outlined the evolution of prediction platforms: they emerged from 2010s fintech apps initially focused on assets like Bitcoin and stock price movements. As these platforms shifted toward user-generated content, their scope expanded to allow users to wager on virtually any topic. Meanwhile, GCI CEO Matt Holt delivered a stark assessment of the report’s findings, noting that the scale of the unregulated online gambling industry could no longer be ignored. He pointed out that with an estimated $5.9 trillion in betting volume, the sector has become one of the world’s largest economic systems while operating largely outside regulatory oversight. Contextualizing the Figures To illustrate, let’s look at U.S. prediction markets and this year’s Super Bowl. According to Kalshi, a global leader in prediction markets, it recorded $1.2 billion in trading activity during the event. That’s roughly one-third of the $3.1 billion in Super Bowl-related prediction market trading volume estimated by GCI. The numbers become even more staggering when viewed globally. For instance, the U.S.’s nominal GDP in 2025 is estimated at roughly $30 trillion, while China’s economy stands at $19 trillion. No other national economy exceeds $5 trillion. Against this backdrop, the unregulated online gambling market represents the third-largest economic flow in the world. Finally, GCI argues that the regulated market accounts for just 22% of global gross gaming revenue, leaving licensed operators with a minority share compared to the unregulated sector, which controls the remaining 78%. This article is provided by a third-party. AsiaGameHub (https://asiagamehub.com/) makes no warranties regarding its content. AsiaGameHub delivers targeted distribution for iGaming, Casino, and eSports, connecting 3,000+ premium Asian media outlets and 80,000+ specialized influencers across ASEAN.
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